About China's Aging Population

China's Population: the Increasing Proportion of Elderly People

China’s population is projected to increase from around 1.3 billion people in 2001 to about 1.5 billion in 2040, after which it will start to decline slowly, if present fertility patterns are maintained. Over the next forty years China will have to deal with several problems as a result of the increasing population, described throughout the second part of this report (urbanisation, sustainable agriculture, environment, health). China also faces the important problems associated with the increasing proportion of elderly people, which is mainly due to decreasing fertility, though also decreasing mortality.

The proportion of those aged over 65 will increase from 7% of the population in 2000 to about 20% in 2040. Furthermore, the very old, those aged over 80, will increase from about 8 million to about 50 million. Matching this, there will be a decrease in the ratio of working age people to support each elderly person from 5 to 1 to 3 to 1. This essentially means that each working individual will be obliged to pay more to support the elderly as, to date, a market-oriented social security system has not succeeded in replacing the old all-encompassing state-run system. Of course, a market-oriented system will also face similar problems.

Young people between the ages of 10 and 24 constitute one-sixth of China’s total population. This age group, traditionally seen as the healthiest segment of society, is now threatened by the consequences of its own changing behavioural patterns and is increasingly at risk of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases.